２０２０年代に北朝鮮は存在しない（North Korea in the 2020s does not exist）

ロシア政府に対外政策を助言する「世界経済．国際関係研究所（ＩＭＥＭＯ）」が９月にロシア政府に提出した報告書で、「２０２０年代に北朝鮮は存在しない」と分析していたことが分かった。４日付の韓国紙、朝鮮日報が伝えた。
　報告書は、北朝鮮が現在「崩壊に向け勢いを加速させている」とし、「金正日総書記から正恩氏への権力委譲が崩壊を促進する」と分析。また２０年代には「（南北は）統一へ向けた実質的段階に入っており、北は今のような形態では存在していない」と結論づけた。
　崩壊への道筋については「金総書記退任で国家の方向性が失われ、官僚集団と軍．保安機関勢力に分裂し権力争いが起きる」と予測。混乱の中（１）韓国統制下で臨時政府樹立（２）軍の武装解除と経済の現代化の進行（３）経済の韓国への吸収－の３段階で進むと指摘している。
　どういうシナリオで崩壊に向かっていくのかが問われるでしょうね。民衆の犠牲を少なくし、軟着陸が出来るといいでしょうね。南北の格差が広がっている現状では、南が北を掻き抱く心を持たなければ両国にとって明るい未来は開かれていかないでしょうね。

To advise the Russian government's foreign policy, "the world economy. Institute of International Relations (IMEMO)" in a report submitted to the Russian government in September, "North Korea in the 2020s does not exist" were able to analyze and OK. October 4 Korean papers, the Chosun Ilbo reported.
The report is currently in North Korea "has accelerated the momentum for the decay," and "to promote the transfer of power to the collapse of Kim Jong Il turns on the positive," said. Also in the 1920s "(North and South) has entered a substantive stage towards a unified form, such as the North does not exist now," concluded.
On the road to collapse "a loss of direction of the state retirement Kim, bureaucrats and military populations. Caused a power struggle split the forces security agencies," expected. In confusion (1) establish a provisional government under the control of Korea (2) The progress of the modernization of military and economic disarmament (3) can be absorbed into South Korea's economy - and points out that proceeds in three stages.

I questioned whether we would be facing the collapse of what the scenario. Reduce the expense of the people, and hopefully can be a soft landing. At present North-South gap is spreading, bright future for both countries must have a heart I feel it scratch go south to north is open.