Do not in a festive mood to high stock.

What will happen this year in the second year Abenomikusu Pursue growth and de- deflation . It is the " arrow of the first " power to the stock market of different dimension monetary easing measures by the Bank of Japan to reprint a large amount of bill is a distinguished , Bank of Japan money is poured into the financial markets in the high pace this year . However, if you look for us there is no benefit of high stock , not the investor , livelihoods are not necessarily better .
In short , is welcome from the international financial markets and New York Bank of Japan if the money, but it is difficult to say that animated employment and consumption in the country.
9.7 trillion yen for the same period last year , nominal gross domestic product , which represents the real economy (GDP) was increased over 2% in the rate in the July-September period last year , but it did contribute to it and is a public investment mainly . It is not yet been quantitative easing is to boost capital investment and private consumption .
Weak yen produce imports higher raw material costs and energy . The majority of small and medium-sized enterprises can not be passed on to sales prices increased costs . As a result , small and medium-sized enterprises operating income is down 15% year-on-year , and down 32% respectively from April to June period last year , in the July-September period . It is a contrast to the revenue growth of the leading companies that can pass price .
Downturn in domestic demand due to deflation and super- strong yen so far , a leading manufacturing was switched to the business model that enhances the production bases overseas , such as China, imported into the country and products parts from there . In terms of amount , after the Great East Japan Earthquake , exports have not stopped the downward trend Until recently . Import volume steadily increased from the beginning in 2010 , I have remained still high level of Abenomikusu after the start . As a result, the trade deficit of Japan has continued to increase.
Economists of reflation school says " take a year or two in the impact on the real economy due to different dimension relaxation ," but things still further consumption tax hike after April this year 's concern . Many of the Policy Committee of the Bank of Japan is expected to around 3% , including the impact of the consumption tax increase worth the consumer inflation rate of next year , real income is reduced Taking into account the inflation component . There is a possibility that the large drop in reversal from last-minute demand of the consumption tax increase before the demand for consumer durables and automobiles housing , and consumer electronics . The festive this year with high stock I is ridiculous .
Of course the value of the yen 's fall if the Bank of Japan issued in smoke as much money this . And stock price rises foreign investors running to buy . Flow of now is what it was made .
Hard life has continued for the common people the real economy does not change still only high stock is ahead . Up of salary is expected to thin . It seems to become more and more painful to start up from the consumption tax in April . And I can quite possible that the Abe administration also stand in a bind people also know the reality . I would not do in a festive mood to high stock .




脱デフレと成長をめざすアベノミクス２年目の今年はどうなるか。その「第１の矢」である、お札を大量に増刷する日銀の異次元金融緩和策の株式市場に対する威力は抜群で、今年もハイペースで日銀マネーが金融市場に流し込まれる。しかし、投資家ではなく株高の恩恵がないわれわれにとってみれば、暮らし向きがよくなるわけではない。
要するに、日銀がお金を刷ればニューヨークなど国際金融市場から大歓迎されるが、国内の消費や雇用を活気づけているとは言いがたい。
実体経済を表す名目国内総生産（ＧＤＰ）は、昨年７～９月期で前年同期比９・７兆円、率にして２％強増大したが、それに寄与したのは主に公共投資である。量的緩和が民間消費や企業の設備投資を押し上げるにはいたっていない。
　円安はエネルギーなど輸入原材料コスト高を生む。中小企業の大半はコスト上昇分を販売価格に転嫁できない。その結果、中小企業営業利益は昨年４～６月期、７～９月期にそれぞれ前年同期比１５％減、３２％減と落ち込んでいる。価格転嫁できる大手企業の収益増とは対照的だ。
　製造業大手はこれまでの超円高とデフレによる内需の低迷で、中国など海外の製造拠点を増強し、そこから部品や製品を国内に輸入するビジネス・モデルに切り替えた。量で見ると、輸出は東日本大震災後、最近に至るまで下落基調が止まっていない。輸入量は２０１０年初めから増加の一途を辿り、アベノミクス開始後は高水準のまま推移している。この結果、日本の貿易赤字は増加し続けている。
　「異次元緩和による実体景気への影響には１、２年かかる」とリフレ派のエコノミストたちは言うが、なおさらのこと、今年４月の消費税増税後が気がかりだ。日銀の政策委員会の大勢は来年の消費者物価上昇率を消費増税の影響分を含め３％前後とみているが、インフレ分を勘案すると実質所得は減る。住宅や自動車、家電など耐久消費財の需要は消費増税前の駆け込み需要から一転して大きく落ち込む恐れがある。株高で今年も浮かれるのはばかげている。
　これだけ日銀がお金を刷って発行すれば円の価値は下がるのが当然です。そして外国投資家が買いに走って株価が上昇する。今の流れは作られたものです。
　株高だけが先行して実体経済は依然として変わらず庶民にとっては苦しい生活が続いています。給料のアップは期待薄です。４月から出発する消費税アップにますます苦しくなりそうですね。そして国民も現実を知って安倍政権も苦境に立つ可能性は十分ありますね。株高に浮かれてはいけないでしょうね。